Abreu Cappella 2016 – when Bacchus met the bear market
Bacchus looks on as this 97-point cult Cabernet rockets past $1,000, crash-lands under $650, and now tempts bold investors to seize the dip before the next ascent.
A quick tale from the god of wine
At the height of the 2021 frenzy I – Bacchus, vine-crowned and full of mischief – watched traders bid Abreu Cappella 2016 to $1,085 a bottle. I whispered “Remember Icarus” into the vineyard breeze, but the roar of auction paddles drowned me out. Today those same bottles change hands for about $628, and the hangover is real. Wine-Searcher
Price action in three beats
First release in 2019 cost roughly $500-600. Two years later the label touched four figures. Since then:
- Current global average – $628 ex-tax Wine-Searcher
- U S average – $565 ex-tax Wine-Searcher
- Low retail print – $550 at a California merchant in August 2025 Wine Spectrum
That slide translates to a 42 percent drawdown and a negative 12-13 percent annualized return from the peak – numbers usually reserved for meme stocks, not 97-100-point Cabernet blends. Volatility remains above 200 percent, and the widest bid-ask spreads hover near 25 percent.
Liquidity, geography and sentiment
Roughly two-thirds of bottles are stateside, with the rest split between the U K and Asia. Trade flows are thin: private brokers or specialty auctions handle most parcels, and a lone three-bottle lot at Christie’s in 2025 was enough to move price charts. Christie's Online Only Top U S restaurants still list Cappella for $1,800-2,400, but slowing turnover is prompting smaller future allocations.
Does the crystal ball show a rebound?
Regression models – built on ten years of cult-Napa data – project a gentle drift toward $647 by 2028, inside a 95 percent confidence band of $574-723. With no fresh catalyst, the upside case hinges on two levers:
- Scarcity mathematics – only about 450 cases were bottled, and attrition will tighten supply as the wine enters peak drinking windows between 2027 and 2035.
- Relative value – Cappella now trades 30-40 percent below Screaming Eagle 2016 yet carries comparable critic scores. Vinous
Investment playbook
Approach like a sober Bacchanalian:
- Buy discipline – target sub-$550 retail or sub-$480 hammer after fees.
- Sizing – cap exposure at 3 percent of a diversified wine portfolio.
- Exit – hold seven to ten years, then consign pristine original-wood cases to marquee California auctions where provenance premiums still fetch 10-15 percent.
Closing sip
Abreu Cappella 2016 has not lost its pedigree – the fruit still sings of blackcurrant, graphite and rose petal – but price gravity has reminded mortals that even a god’s favorite wine must obey supply and demand. If you already own it, cellar and wait. If you plan to pounce, let patience, not FOMO, guide your bid. Bacchus himself will be saving a bottle for the Saturnalia of 2030 – and he’s willing to wait for the last laugh.
