Ruby Lightning Over Slate – Bacchus Bets on L’Ermita 2018
Bacchus watched Spain’s steepest terraces forge a 99-point elixir that climbed from a $1 k release to a $2.4 k trophy, and my prophecy now says a fresh surge could ignite the Priorat skyline for patient investors hunting “Alvaro Palacios L’Ermita 2018 investment”.
The night the hermitage sang
Long ago, disguised as a dusty muleteer, I wound up the black-slate ravines of Priorat and found a silent stone chapel above Gratallops. Moonlight flickered off licorella shards like embers. Inside the cellar, young Alvaro Palacios drew a thimble of newborn 2018 L’Ermita. One sip – crushed violets, molten berry, iron smoke – and the stone walls trembled as if the old hermit’s ghost were striking a bell. I pressed a vine-leaf coin into the must and whispered a blessing: may this wine climb like wildfire.
Four years later that wildfire has scorched a jagged trail – release at $800 to $1 000, a leap to $2 100 by 2021, a stumble to $1 600 in 2022, then a rally to today’s Liv-ex mid of about $2 379 Wine-Searcher. Total gain since 2020 is 11.5 percent – but the path whipped through 180 percent volatility and a 47 percent drawdown.
Reading the auguries – data not divination
My spreadsheets – less poetic than goat entrails but far more precise – peg a central fair value of about $3,282 by 2028, though the 95 percent cone stretches from $2,671 to $4,003 because every new trade sends tremors through a very shallow pool. Retail shelves still whisper $1,313 to $2,000, while Liv-ex prints a steadier $2.4 k mid-price, and whenever a pristine six-pack surfaces in London or Hong Kong it disappears beneath a hail of bids, provenance premiums inflating final numbers by 10-20 percent. The 99- and 98-point reviews are already baked into that pricing, so the next surge must come from tightening supply rather than fresh critic applause, and from a demand map split roughly 40 percent UK, 30 percent Asia, and 30 percent US – with American thirst still jostling against tariff walls.
Playing the ember – a mortal guide
- Entry window – Pounce below $2 000 retail or under $1 800 hammer. That captures most of the modelled upside and cushions another market wobble.
- Position size – Cap at 3 percent of a fine-wine portfolio. Thin liquidity and 180 percent historical volatility demand respect.
- Hold horizon – Cellar through 2030-2035 when the wine’s black-fruit core softens into satin and attrition tightens supply.
- Exit stage – Offer complete OWC trios or six-packs at spring Hong Kong or autumn London sales where Iberian trophies command bidding wars.
Bacchus’ final toast
L’Ermita 2018 is a ruby bolt struck into slate – volatile, dazzling, and scarce. I have hidden two amphorae in the cavern beneath the hermitage, sealed with wax and a silver coin. When the licorella hills glow again with bidder fervor, I will drink there with those who believed. Until then, let patience keep your chalice steady – the ember still burns beneath the stone.
