Seña 2018: The Ghost Horse of Aconcagua
Bacchus’ spectral ride through Chile’s valleys reveals a wine of brilliance but a faltering investment flame
The Night of the White Horse
There was a night in Aconcagua when I rode not with maenads and drums, but on my ghostly white horse, a steed that moved through vineyards like a whisper of snow. The farmers, half-asleep, saw me gallop through the vines of Seña, the air heavy with cedar and cassis, and they swore the hoofbeats left sparks in the gravel. I rode that horse into the cellar, where barrels trembled and flames flickered without smoke. The wine was magnificent - dense blackcurrant, tobacco, violets - but as the horse faded back into mist, I warned: not every wonder bears a crown of gold.
That wine was Seña 2018: a masterpiece in glass, but a riddle in investment.
The Wine: Brilliance Without Borders
Seña was born of boldness - a joint venture in 1995 between Eduardo Chadwick and Robert Mondavi, meant to prove Chile could stand with Bordeaux and Napa. The 2018 vintage shows exactly why: a Bordeaux blend with Cabernet Sauvignon at its heart, supported by Carmenère, Merlot, Franc, and Petit Verdot. James Suckling gave it 100 points, praising its elegance and slow-ripening perfection. With a drinking window that stretches to 2040, it is a wine of depth and patience.
The Market: A Horse Running Backwards
On paper, this wine gleams. In reality, its market legs stumble. Tracked on Liv-ex at $123 a bottle, Seña 2018 has shed nearly 42% of its value since 2020. CAGR sits at -10.4% over five years, with volatility spiking at 83%. Auction houses list it, but results are tepid, with buyers circling cautiously. Compare this to Almaviva, Chadwick’s other joint venture with Rothschild, which holds steadier pricing and broader global recognition.
Forecasts are grim: a projected slide to $100 within a year and possibly $82 within two. In a world where Lafite and Rousseau grow steadily, Seña has become the white horse galloping into fog - beautiful, fleeting, hard to capture.
Risks: Shadows in the Vineyard
Investors face multiple hurdles. Liquidity remains thin outside niche collectors and Chile-focused sommeliers. Currency swings in the Chilean peso add fragility. High volatility offers risk without the returns to justify it. Provenance and storage are essential, but even perfect condition cannot mask market disinterest.
Portfolio Fit: A Spectral Diversion
For portfolios grounded in Lafite, Screaming Eagle, Rousseau, and Dom Pérignon, Seña adds geographic diversity - but little else. At $123, it is affordable compared to your blue-chip holdings, but its downward trajectory makes it more passion purchase than profit engine. A few bottles for drinking, perhaps, but not for compounding wealth.
Verdict: Avoid the Ghostly Gallop
Seña 2018 is a paradox: divine in quality, disastrous in returns. It reminds us that not all 100-point wines are investments. Some, like the white horse I rode through the Aconcagua night, are meant to be glimpsed, remembered, and savored - not stabled for profit.
For serious investors, the verdict is clear: avoid allocation. Better to strengthen proven winners in Burgundy, Napa, or Penfolds Grange, wines whose markets roar like lions instead of fading into mist.
