Titans in Clay: Why Château Trotanoy 2016 May Yet Rise from Pomerol’s Slumber
Bacchus revisits the iron-clay plateau he once forged, then weighs Liv-ex figures, auction prints, and portfolio math to decide whether this 99-point blue-chip is a contrarian gem or a fading legend.
Epic Prelude on the Plateau
Centuries ago, I thundered across Pomerol’s baked, iron-flecked clays. Each footfall cracked the earth until it bled a trickle of Merlot; those rivulets pooled into a single vine whose fruit glowed like embers. I christened the patch Trotanoy, “too laborious,” for soil that tested even a god’s patience. The 2016 vintage echoes that myth: cool nights, sun-polished days, and a spine of freshness that turned 95% Merlot into bottled thunder.
Market Reality Check
Romance aside, the ledger tells a tougher tale. Liv-ex posts a mid-price just under $550 per bottle, yet Wine-Searcher’s global retail average hovers around $347, and Cult Wines quotes a £2,630 case price (≈ $3,340, or $278 per bottle). Add WineBid’s last hammer at $255 and you see a gaping spread that shouts thin liquidity. Little wonder the five-year CAGR languishes at –0.71%, scarred by a 23% peak-to-trough slide and 70% volatility.
Auction Pulse & Secondary Liquidity
Reality bites in the saleroom. WineBid’s last hammer (25 Feb 2024) cleared at $255; iDealwine pegs today’s estimate around €273 (≈ $285). Sotheby’s Hong Kong is currently guiding a six-pack “to be determined” - optimism without guarantee. Such spreads shout illiquidity and demand patient capital.
Value Versus Neighboring Vintages
Stack 2016’s 99-point halo against 2015 (97 pts, ~ $475) or 2019 (98 pts, ~ $510). On a price-per-point basis the 2016 still charges a prestige premium that recent buyers refuse to pay - an emperor left waiting at the banquet door.
Risk & Volatility - Claws Beneath the Velvet
High scores don’t shield against market fatigue. Bordeaux volumes have cooled while collectors chase Burgundy scarcity and Tuscan hype. Forecast models suggest another 5% slide by 2027, so any entry is a wager on sentiment swinging, not just on liquid perfection.
Provenance & Storage - Guard the Slumbering Titan
If you dare, insist on original wood, flawless LWIN 10159552016 records, and transit logs never above 20°C. Rest at 12°C and 70% RH; the tannin matrix will unravel luxuriously between 2028 and 2040. Handle like a dormant dragon - one heat spike, and the treasure melts.
Investment Playbook
Allocate no more than 1–2% of a diversified wine portfolio. Hunt at auctions for a $160–180 entry, then sheath the bottle for a decade. Wait for the market to rotate back to right-bank icons or for 2016 to hit prime drinking buzz. Set a mental stop if Liv-ex dips another 20%, lest the dragon keep sleeping.
Final Verdict
Trotanoy 2016 is a paradox: a 99-point titan mired in mortal malaise. Momentum hunters should steer clear, but believers in critic rapture and terroir magic may find this slumbering giant laced with future thunder - provided their patience, and their cellar, runs as deep as Pomerol’s iron clay.
